March Madness Bracket: 11 Teams That KenPom Says Can Win the NCAA Tournament Ranked

It’s that time of year again when you’re filling out brackets and rediscovering that TruTV is a thing. Even the biggest college hoops head who has been dialed in on the hardwood since November can use a little help this time of year.

A big part of the process is giving yourself the best chance to win that office pool, taking the mantle away from Linda in accounting, or cashing that futures ticket as “One Shining Moment” plays on your screen.

To that end, we find ourselves scouring websites like KenPom, EvanMiya, and BartTorvik for any angle we can get.

KenPom’s database dates back to 1997, and in every season since then, the eventual National Champ has finished in the top 40 in offensive efficiency and the top 25 in defensive efficiency. His metric measures points per 100 possessions, adjusted for pace.

Looking at this year’s bracket, 11 teams qualify. Let’s have a look at who they are, how they stack up, and what the odds say.

1) Duke Blue Devils

Duke’s NCAA Tournament Profile

Record: 32-2 | KenPom Rank: 1
Offensive KenPom Rank: 4
Defensive KenPom Rank: 2
Region: East | Seed: 1

With a top-five offense and defense, it’s no surprise that Duke was the favorite to win it all when the odds came out. Considering all the coaches with championship pedigrees in the East, the committee hasn’t made it easy.

Toughest Challengers: UConn, Michigan State, Kansas, St. John’s

March Madness Odds:

Reach the Sweet 4 -125
National Championship: +390

2) Michigan Wolverines

Michigan’s NCAA Tournament Profile

Record: 31-3 | KenPom Rank: 3
KenPom Rank: 8
KenPom Rank: 1
Region: Midwest | Seed: 1

The Wolverines have the top-ranked defense, which has them on the heels of the Dukies for the top overall team in the tournament. One could argue that Michigan has a more favorable path to the Final Four, and they are now the betting favorite.

Toughest Challengers: Iowa State, Virginia, Alabama

March Madness Odds:

Reach the Sweet 4 -125
National Championship: +380

Our official National Champion Prediction Markets pick is Michigan. Find out why here.

3) Arizona Wildcats

Arizona’s NCAA Tournament Profile

Record: 32-2 | KenPom Rank: 2
KenPom Rank: 7
KenPom Rank: 3
Region: West | Seed: 1

At one point, Arizona appeared to be headed towards being the top overall seed. The Wildcats are in the top tier with Duke and Michigan, tied with the Wolverines as the favorite to cut down the nets as of Wednesday morning.

Toughest Challengers: Purdue, Gonzaga, Arkansas

March Madness Odds:

Reach the Sweet 4 -125
National Championship: +380

4) Florida Gators

Florida’s NCAA Tournament Profile

Record: 26-7 | KenPom Rank: 4
KenPom Rank: 9
KenPom Rank: 6
Region: South | Seed: 1

The Gators make it four teams in KenPom’s top 10 in offensive and defensive efficiency, earning the fourth No. 1 seed. However, there is a clear-cut gap after the top three, and many metrics have Florida in a tier below.

Toughest Challengers: Houston, Illinois, Vanderbilt

March Madness Odds:

Reach the Sweet 4 +175
National Championship: +850

5) Houston Cougars

Houston’s NCAA Tournament Profile

Record: 28-6 | KenPom Rank: 5
KenPom Rank: 16
KenPom Rank: 4
Region: South | Seed: 2

As the top No. 2 seed, Houston gets the easiest No. 1 seed. They are also the only non-one-seed to have both a top 20 offense and defense. Death, taxes, and Kelvin Samson’s team playing championship-caliber defense.

Toughest Challengers: Florida, Illinois, Vanderbilt

March Madness Odds:

Reach the Sweet 4: +220
National Championship: +1100

6) Iowa State Cyclones

Iowa State’s NCAA Tournament Profile

Record: 27-7 | KenPom Rank: 6
KenPom Rank: 22
KenPom Rank: 5
Region: Midwest | Seed: 2

Another Big 12 team that absolutely brings it defensively. Iowa State is the only team outside the top five that has an offense or defense ranked fifth or better. It’s that ability to stay within striking distance that makes the Cyclones so dangerous.

Toughest Challengers: Michigan, Virginia, Alabama

March Madness Odds:

Reach the Sweet 4: +290
National Championship: +1400

7) UConn Huskies

UConn’s NCAA Tournament Profile

Record: 29-5 | KenPom Rank: 11
KenPom Rank: 26
KenPom Rank: 11
Region: East | Seed: 2

After a hot start to the season, UConn failed to win the Big East regular-season and tournament, yet still earned a two-seed. That’s why many metrics like KenPom aren’t as kind to the Huskies, and the odds have them outside the top eight among championship contenders. A tough region doesn’t help.

Toughest Challengers: Duke, Michigan State, Kansas, St. John’s

March Madness Odds:

Reach the Sweet 4: +500
National Championship: +3000

8) Michigan State Spartans

Michigan State’s NCAA Tournament Profile

Record: 25-7 | KenPom Rank: 9
KenPom Rank: 24
KenPom Rank: 12
Region: East | Seed: 3

Have I mentioned how tough I believe the East is? Maybe UConn is the weakest two (debatable), but Duke is right at the top, while St. John’s is ahead of several three and four seeds in terms of Natty odds. This would be one of Tom Izzo’s greatest feats with Michigan State.

Toughest Challengers: Duke, UConn, Kansas, St. John’s

March Madness Odds:

Reach the Sweet 4: +700
National Championship: +4500

9) Gonzaga Bulldogs

Gonzaga’s NCAA Tournament Profile

Record: 30-3 | KenPom Rank: 10
KenPom Rank: 30
KenPom Rank: 9
Region: West | Seed: 3

Death, taxes, and a Mark Few 30-win season. What a run! Is this the year they finally win it all? With a top 10 defense, if Gonzaga can hit some shots, they are a team no one wants to face in the second weekend. With neither Purdue nor Arkansas on this list, maybe this is their year.

Toughest Challengers: Purdue, Arizona, Arkansas

March Madness Odds:

Reach the Sweet 4: +750
National Championship: +4500

10) Virginia Cavaliers

Virginia’s NCAA Tournament Profile

Record: 29-5 | KenPom Rank: 13
KenPom Offense Rank: 28
KenPom Rank: 16
Region: Midwest | Seed: 3

What a bounce-back season for UVA, but not many have them among the top 12 teams in the country. Did they really deserve the No. 3 seed? The sportsbooks don’t believe so. The Wahoos are tied for 14th for the most likely team to make the Final Four on FanDuel.

Toughest Challengers: Michigan, Iowa State, Alabama

March Madness Odds:

Reach the Sweet 4: +1100
National Championship: +7500

11) Tennessee Volunteers

Tennessee’s NCAA Tournament Profile

Record: 21-11 | KenPom Rank: 16
KenPom Offense Rank: 35
KenPom Defense Rank: 14
Region: Midwest | Seed: 6

Among the 11 teams on this list, Tennessee’s defense ranks 10th and its offense 11th, the only unit (of 22) on the list outside the top 30. But if you’re looking for an outlier, a true longshot, the Volunteers qualify. Can the sixth-seeded Vols make a run? It should be noted that they are ahead of No. 5 seed Texas Tech and tied with No. 4 seed Alabama to advance from their bracket, as both teams are without a star player. With Virginia as a vulnerable No. 3.

Toughest Challengers: Michigan, Iowa State, Virginia, Alabama

March Madness Odds:

Reach the Sweet 4 -125
National Championship: +10000

March Madness Best of the Rest

As expected, all four No. 1 seeds qualified by finishing in the top 40 on offense and top 25 on defense.

Three of four No. 2 seeds also cracked the list, with the Purdue Boilermakers the lone No. 2 seed. The Big Ten Tournament champs have the second-most-efficient offense per KenPom, and their defense is ranked 37th overall. Purdue is the best team to be eliminated if this trend holds through.

Next up would be No. 3 seed Illinois, another Big Ten contender who bites the dust unless they can buck the trend. The Fighting (Balkan) Illini, at +850, have the best odds to make the Final Four among the three seeds. The only team with a more efficient offense than Purdue is Illinois, ranked No. 1. Their defense is 28th, so they are oh, so close. Ranked 7th, they are the highest KenPom team not to qualify by this criteria.

Who else? Arkansas, Kansas, and St. John’s all appear to be dangerous teams who will need to overcome one side of the ball to reach their potential. For the Razorbacks, it’s the 46th-ranked defense holding back the fifth-best offense.

KU and SJU, who could be on a collision course to meet in the second round, bring it defensively, but haven’t been consistent enough on offense. Defensively, the Jayhawks are tenth, and the Johnnies are 12th per KenPom; however, Rick Pitino’s team is 44th on offense (very, very close), and Bill Self’s unit is 57th.