NFL · 1 month ago

55 Overrated NFL Free Agents: Where They Signed, Who to Avoid

Paul Connor

Host · Writer

The Bottom Line
The winners of March often become the losers of September. While fans love a splashy signing, the smartest teams understand that the best move in free agency is often the one you simply don't make. Only time will tell if this year's high rollers can buck that NFL trend.
The Allure of the Big Splash
The history of the NFL is littered with massive free-agent deals that ended in disaster. As past cautionary tales like Albert Haynesworth and Kenny Golladay prove, winning the bidding war in March rarely leads to a parade in February. With the 2026 salary cap shattering the $300 million mark, front offices are more tempted than ever to overspend on a "missing piece." Yet, GMs must remain disciplined; the line between securing a franchise pillar and being saddled with a bloated contract is razor-thin.

Keeping that volatility in mind, we have identified 55 players from this cycle who are most likely to fall short of their hefty new price tags.

Note: This is an expansion of our previous coverage. Profiles for players who have already reached agreements have been revised to reflect their new deals.
1. Malik Willis (QB)
Malik Willis looked fantastic in his limited action for Green Bay over the last two seasons, rehabilitating his image entirely. However, desperate teams are projecting a sizeable contract (potentially $40M/year) based on a handful of games in a perfect ecosystem. Paying franchise quarterback money for a player with fewer than ten career starts is the ultimate gamble.

UPDATE

Willis has signed a three-year, $67.5 million contract with the Miami Dolphins.
- Contract Value: 3 years, $67,500,000 million ($22.5 million AAV)
- Total Guaranteed: $45,000,000 | At Signing: $45,000,000
3. Kyle Pitts (TE)
Kyle Pitts will likely seek a valuation consistent with a top-three tight end based on his elite physical traits, yet his production has rarely justified that price tag. Even with a well-timed 88-929-5 receiving line in 2025, Pitts offers little as a blocker and still tends to disappear for long stretches.

UPDATE

The Atlanta Falcons have placed the franchise tag on Pitts.
- Contract Value: 1 years, $15,050,000 million ($15 million AAV)
- Total Guaranteed: $15,050,000 | At Signing: $15,050,000
4. Kenneth Walker III (RB)
History warns that teams often overpay for "recency bias" on the league's biggest stage, a trap awaiting whoever signs Kenneth Walker III. Coming off a Super Bowl LX victory in which he earned MVP honors, Walker's market is going to be red hot, but suitors are paying for the postseason shine rather than long-term durability, especially given the nagging oblique and ankle injuries that sapped his efficiency before 2025.

UPDATE

Walker has signed a three-year, $43 million contract with the Kansas City Chiefs.
- Contract Value: 3 years, $43,050,000 million ($14 million AAV)
- Total Guaranteed: $28,700,000 | At Signing: $28,700,000
5. Trey Hendrickson (EDGE)
Trey Hendrickson has been a sack artist for years, but he is entering his age-31 season coming off a 2025 campaign significantly shortened by hip and core injuries. Pass rushers often fall off a cliff in their 30s. Paying Hendrickson for what he did in 2023 and 2024 rather than what he will do in 2026 is a recipe for regret.

UPDATE

Hendrickson has signed a four-year, $112 million contract with the Baltimore Ravens.
- Contract Value: 4 years, $112 million ($28.0 million AAV)
- Total Guaranteed: $60,000,000 | At Signing: $60,000,000
6. Daniel Jones (QB)
Daniel Jones revitalized his career in Indianapolis before a torn Achilles tendon ended his season in December. While Jones is widely expected to re-sign with the Colts, any deal is going to be a risky investment for a mobile quarterback whose greatest asset may be permanently compromised, not to mention he might not even be ready for Week 1.

UPDATE

Jones has re-signed with the Colts, agreeing to a two-year, $88 million contract.
- Contract Value: 2 years, $88,000,000 million ($44 million AAV)
- Total Guaranteed: $60,000,000 | At Signing: $49,490,000
7. Kwity Paye (EDGE)
Despite a disappointing 2025 season where he logged only four sacks, Kwity Paye is projected to command nearly $17M annually. Teams hoping to unlock potential that hasn't consistently manifested on the field are likely to overpay based solely on his athletic profile and former first-round draft status.

UPDATE

Paye has signed a three-year, $48 million contract with the Las Vegas Raiders.
- Contract Value: 3 years, $48,000,000 million ($16 million AAV)
- Total Guaranteed: $31,280,000 | At Signing: $25,738,000
8. Riq Woolen (CB)
Riq Woolen is hitting free agency with a freshly minted Super Bowl ring and a physical profile (6'4", 4.26 speed) that GMs dream about. However, his 2025 campaign was uneven, often marred by lapses in coverage discipline and tackling issues that he masked with elite recovery speed. A team desperate for a CB1 will likely pay him $20M+ annually based on his athletic ceiling and playoff run, ignoring that his technical consistency has plateaued since his Pro Bowl rookie year.

UPDATE
- Contract Value: 1 years, $12,000,000 million ($12 million AAV)
- Total Guaranteed: $12,000,000 | At Signing: $12,000,000
9. Jaelan Phillips (LB)
Availability remains the most important stat, yet pass rushers with extensive medical histories often command massive contracts based on "potential" and "flashes." Jaelan Phillips is a premier talent when healthy, but paying him top-ten edge money requires betting against the odds of his durability holding up over a multi-year deal, given his history of significant knee issues and a 2023 Achilles tear.

UPDATE

Phillips has signed a four-year, $120 million contract with the Carolina Panthers.
- Contract Value: 4 years, $120 million ($30.0 million AAV)
- Total Guaranteed: $11,300,000 | At Signing: $11,300,000
10. Wan'Dale Robinson (WR)
While Wan'Dale Robinson's 92 catches ranked ninth in the NFL, his low touchdown numbers (four) and modest yards-per-catch average (11.0) reveal a volume-dependent slot receiver masquerading as a game-changer. Paying $15M+ per year for mostly underneath production is bad business.

UPDATE

Robinson has signed a four-year, $78 million contract with the Tennessee Titans.
- Contract Value: 4 years, $70,000,000 million ($17.5 million AAV)
- Total Guaranteed: $38,000,000 | At Signing: $38,000,000
11. Jamel Dean (CB)
Despite taking a hefty pay cut to stay in Tampa Bay, Jamel Dean rebounded with a phenomenal 2025 campaign and is poised to ignite a massive bidding war. Yet, handing a lucrative deal to a cornerback who turns 30 this fall is a highly precarious move. Dean has never played more than 15 games in a season, missing three contests this past year alone. If a desperate front office ignores his durability red flags and bakes significant long-term guarantees into his contract, they risk anchoring their salary cap to an aging asset whose performance could quickly fall off a cliff.

UPDATE

Dean has signed a three-year, $36.75 million contract with the Pittsburgh Steelers.
- Contract Value: 3 years, $36,750,000 million ($12.5 million AAV)
- Total Guaranteed: $12,000,000 | At Signing: $12,000,000
12. Mike Evans (WR)
There is no denying that Mike Evans is a surefire Hall of Famer. Unfortunately, his historic streak of 1,000-yard seasons came to an abrupt end in 2025, as he managed only 368 yards across eight games. Evans will be 33 years old in August and is battling severe age-cliff regression and compounding injuries, including chronic hamstring issues. Paying top-market guaranteed money for an aging receiver with diminishing vertical separation based purely on his past legacy is a sentimental trap.

UPDATE

Evans has signed with the San Francisco 49ers, agreeing to a three-year contract worth up to $60.4 million.
- Contract Value: 3 years, $42,400,000 million ($14 million AAV)
- Total Guaranteed: $16,300,000 | At Signing: $14,300,000
13. Breece Hall (RB)
Breece Hall enters free agency at just 24 years old and fresh off his first 1,000-yard rushing campaign (1,065). However, paying top-of-market money for a running back with a heavy workload and declining advanced metrics (36th in True Yards Per Carry) is a dangerous game. Committing elite, multi-year guaranteed money to a volume-dependent runner is the exact type of move that quickly ruins a team's salary cap flexibility.

UPDATE

The Jets have placed the franchise tag on Hall.
- Contract Value: 1 years, $14,293,000 million ($14.3 million AAV)
- Total Guaranteed: $0 | At Signing: $0
14. Alec Pierce (WR)
Alec Pierce delivered a career year with 1,003 receiving yards and a league-leading 21.3 yards per reception, solidifying himself as a premier deep threat. As a result, his market projection has skyrocketed to the $20M–$24M annual range. While Pierce's vertical speed is elite, paying WR1 money to a highly volatile, low-volume specialist with a limited route tree creates extreme offensive rigidity and is structurally inefficient.

UPDATE

Pierce has re-signed with the Indianapolis Colts, agreeing to a four-year, $114 million contract.
- Contract Value: 4 years, $114,000,000 million ($28.5 million AAV)
- Total Guaranteed: $84,000,000 | At Signing: $60,000,000
15. Braden Smith (RT)
Scarcity at the offensive tackle position routinely forces front offices into panicked overpays, and Braden Smith is this year's prime beneficiary. Entering his age-30 season, Smith's pass-protection metrics regressed significantly in 2025, and he carries a concerning medical history that includes severe neck issues and concussions. Handing an aging, declining right tackle upwards of $17 million annually to satisfy positional demand borders on negligent cap management.

UPDATE

Smith has signed a two-year, $20 million contract with the Houston Texans.
- Contract Value: 2 years, $20,000,000 million ($10 million AAV)
- Total Guaranteed: $13,500,000 | At Signing: $13,500,000
16. Brandon Aiyuk (WR)
Elite route-running and historical production will make Brandon Aiyuk an enticing target once the 49ers officially release him, but his recent medical and organizational fallout make him an unprecedented risk. Aiyuk signed a four-year, $120 million extension with San Francisco in August 2024, but played only seven lackluster games before suffering a torn ACL and MCL in his right knee. Having missed the entirety of the 2025 season and carrying a history of rehab complications that led the Niners to void his contract guarantees, Aiyuk is a depreciating asset.

UPDATE
- Contract Value: 4 years, $120,000,000 million ($30 million AAV)
- Total Guaranteed: $76,000,000 | At Signing: $45,000,000
17. Travis Etienne Jr. (RB)
Travis Etienne Jr. hits free agency carrying the illusion of elite production, having accumulated nearly 1,400 scrimmage yards and 13 touchdowns in 2025. However, advanced metrics reveal a highly inefficient runner whose burst is actively deteriorating. Etienne enters his age-27 season having posted a negative Expected Points Added (EPA) per rush and a dismal 36.2% success rate, lagging significantly behind his positional peers.

UPDATE

Etienne has signed a four-year, $52 million contract with the New Orleans Saints.
- Contract Value: 4 years, $48,000,000 million ($12 million AAV)
- Total Guaranteed: $28,000,000 | At Signing: $24,000,000
18. Alijah Vera-Tucker (G)
While his film shows Pro Bowl upside, Alijah Vera-Tucker's troubling injury history makes him a massive liability. After missing significant portions of 2022 and 2023, Vera-Tucker missed the entire 2025 season with a torn left triceps, meaning he has been available for only 43 of a possible 85 career games. Nevertheless, positional scarcity is driving his market projections as high as $17.5 million annually.

UPDATE

Vera-Tucker has signed a three-year, $42 million contract with the New England Patriots.
- Contract Value: 3 years, $42,000,000 million ($14 million AAV)
- Total Guaranteed: $21,000,000 | At Signing: $21,000,000
19. Joey Bosa (EDGE)
Joey Bosa is a premium brand name whose actual down-to-down impact no longer aligns with his expected compensation. Turning 31 years old in July, Bosa managed only 5.0 sacks in 2025. While he led the NFL with five forced fumbles, those splash plays artificially inflate his perceived value, masking his declining snap share (57.2%) and extensive medical history.
20. David Edwards (G)
David Edwards embodies the risk of positional scarcity inflating the market for mid-tier talent. A solid rotational piece who grew into a starter for the Bills, Edwards allowed a concerning 27 quarterback pressures in 2025. Despite this, desperate teams are projecting an annual salary nearing $20 million, a price point typically reserved for perennial All-Pros.

UPDATE

Edwards has signed a four-year, $61 million contract with the New Orleans Saints.
- Contract Value: 4 years, $61,000,000 million ($15.25 million AAV)
- Total Guaranteed: $45,000,000 | At Signing: $30,000,000
21. Tyler Linderbaum (C)
Tyler Linderbaum has been arguably the best center in football over the last few seasons, earning three consecutive Pro Bowl nods with the Ravens. However, the trap here is the positional value relative to his projected contract. Reports suggest Linderbaum will command a market-shattering deal that far exceeds the traditional center market. Paying a premium at the pivot is notoriously difficult to justify unless a team already boasts a flawless roster, and tying up massive cap space in an interior lineman can paralyze a front office's flexibility to build at premium positions like edge rusher or wide receiver.

UPDATE

Linderbaum has signed a three-year, $81 million contract with the Las Vegas Raiders.
- Contract Value: 3 years, $81 million ($27.0 million AAV)
- Total Guaranteed: $81,000,000 | At Signing: $60,000,000
22. Rasheed Walker (OT)
As the top offensive tackle available, Rasheed Walker is practically guaranteed to incite a bidding war. While he established himself as a solid starter in Green Bay, Walker benefited immensely from Matt LaFleur's scheme and Jordan Love's quick processing. Handing him elite, blind-side money based on his status as the "best available" rather than a true, standalone franchise anchor is a classic free agency pitfall that often leads to massive buyer's remorse.

UPDATE

Walker has signed a one-year, $4 million contract with the Carolina Panthers.
- Contract Value: 1 years, $4,000,000 million ($4 million AAV)
- Total Guaranteed: $3,215,000 | At Signing: $3,215,000
23. Odafe Oweh (EDGE)
After an in-season trade to the Los Angeles Chargers, Odafe Oweh posted 7.5 sacks in 12 games, bringing his name to the forefront of the edge rusher market. Still, Oweh remains a streaky, traits-based pass rusher whose underlying win rate rarely matches his splash plays. Desperate teams are likely to pay him upwards of $20M annually, hoping he will finally blossom into a perennial disruptor, ignoring long stretches of ineffectiveness throughout his career.

UPDATE

Oweh has signed a four-year, $100 million contract with the Washington Commanders.
- Contract Value: 4 years, $96,000,000 million ($24 million AAV)
- Total Guaranteed: $50,600,000 | At Signing: $68,000,000
24. Isaiah Likely (TE)
With Kyle Pitts receiving the franchise tag in Atlanta, Isaiah Likely finds himself thrust into the spotlight as the premier tight end available. Likely flashed immense upside in Baltimore whenever Mark Andrews was sidelined, but his standalone production as a focal-point TE1 remains largely unproven. Paying Likely top-five tight end money based on highlight-reel flashes rather than consistent, high-volume output is a highly dangerous projection for a player transitioning out of a tailored Ravens ecosystem.

UPDATE

Likely has signed a three-year, $40 million contract with the New York Giants.
- Contract Value: 3 years, $40,000,000 million ($13.3 million AAV)
- Total Guaranteed: $26,000,000 | At Signing: $20,500,000
25. Khalil Mack (EDGE)
Khalil Mack's legacy as a generational pass rusher is secure, but entering free agency at 35 years old, his best days are firmly in the rearview mirror. Mack's explosion has noticeably declined, and his snap counts require careful management. Committing significant guaranteed money to a mid-30s edge defender based on name brand and past accolades is exactly how teams handicap their financial future.

UPDATE

Mack has re-signed with the Los Angeles Chargers, agreeing to a one-year, $18 million contract.
- Contract Value: 1 years, $18,000,000 million ($18 million AAV)
- Total Guaranteed: $18,000,000 | At Signing: $18,000,000
26. Wyatt Teller (G)
For years, Wyatt Teller was the premier mauler on the Cleveland Browns' interior. However, he enters free agency at 31 years old following a confusing 2025 campaign that featured both a surprising benching and a season-ending injury. Guard is a position where teams are often forced to overpay for competence, and Teller’s past All-Pro accolades will undoubtedly inflate his asking price.

UPDATE

Teller has signed a two-year, $16 million contract with the Houston Texans.
- Contract Value: 2 years, $16,000,000 million ($8 million AAV)
- Total Guaranteed: $8,500,000 | At Signing: $8,500,000
27. Elgton Jenkins (OL)
Released by the Packers, Elgton Jenkins hits the open market as one of the NFL’s most unique, yet polarizing free agents. While he made his name as a premier "chess piece" capable of starting at four different positions, his 2025 campaign exposed the limits of that versatility, culminating in a statistically weak stretch at center and a devastating lower-leg fracture. The temptation to pay Jenkins elite blind-side or premium guard money based on his Pro Bowl peak is immense, but investing in a 30-year-old lineman recovering from severe ligament damage is a leap of faith, and a dangerous one at that.

UPDATE

Jenkins has signed a two-year, $24 million contract with the Cleveland Browns.
- Contract Value: 2 years, $24,000,000 million ($12 million AAV)
- Total Guaranteed: $15,000,000 | At Signing: $12,000,000
28. Jaquan Brisker (S)
Few players in the modern era channel a 1980s-style enforcer mentality quite like Jaquan Brisker, but that trademark aggression has come at a steep cost. Despite a durable 17-game run in 2025, Brisker’s history of three concussions in four years, including a 2024 stint that required nervous system retraining, makes him a volatile asset. For a front office, the internal debate is whether to reward Brisker's punishing style of play, or fear the reality that his next highlight-reel collision could be his last.

UPDATE

Brisker has signed a one-year, $5.5 million contract with the Pittsburg Steelers.
- Contract Value: 1 years, $5,500,000 million ($5.5 million AAV)
- Total Guaranteed: $4,285,000 | At Signing: $4,285,000
29. Deebo Samuel (WR)
The “wideback” phenomenon Deebo Samuel used to reshape the geometry of the NFL now appears to be hitting a wall of diminishing returns. While his brand name still carries significant weight, the trap for a desperate front office is handing him $13M–$15M annually while expecting the dynamic offensive centerpiece of 2021. Entering his age-30 season, Samuel averaged a career-low 10.1 yards per reception in 2025 as his rushing volume simultaneously plummeted. Any multi-year guarantee at this stage is a bet on past highlights rather than future output.
30. Tyreek Hill (WR)
Released by the Dolphins in February after a 2025 season derailed by a catastrophic knee injury, Tyreek Hill enters free agency at a career crossroads. Now 32 years old, Hill's name alone will command interest, but any team signing him is betting against the steep age cliff that often claims speed-dependent receivers, especially those coming off major reconstructive surgery.
31. Stefon Diggs (WR)
Stefon Diggs was released by the Patriots to avoid a $26.5 million cap hit. While the 32-year-old wideout produced 1,013 receiving yards last season, Diggs's explosiveness against press coverage is fading. More concerning are his pending felony strangulation and assault charges. Diggs still has the hands to help a contender, but with serious legal clouds hanging over his head, his NFL future feels more like a liability than an asset.
32. Taylor Decker (OT)
After ten seasons with the Lions, Taylor Decker hits the market after requesting his release when contract restructures broke down. While the 32-year-old veteran brings toughness, Decker has dealt with injuries and has openly considered retirement. His pass block win rate (89.3%) dropped to the second-lowest of his career in 2025. Teams desperate for a left tackle might overpay, but investing heavily in an aging lineman with declining metrics and recent retirement thoughts carries significant risk.
33. Jawaan Taylor (OT)
The Chiefs absorbed a $20 million dead-cap hit to release the 28-year-old tackle. Jawaan Taylor presents an entirely negative value proposition, with an astonishing 49 penalties over his 45 games in Kansas City. Combined with a dismal 43.8 PFF run-blocking grade last season, paying him premium money willingly imports systemic offensive inefficiency.

UPDATE
- Contract Value: 1 years, $5,000,000 million ($5 million AAV)
- Total Guaranteed: $0 | At Signing: $0
34. Trevon Diggs (CB)
The former All-Pro’s fall from grace has been staggering. After multiple knee surgeries, Trevon Diggs’ elite recovery speed has vanished, the 27-year-old recording zero interceptions and zero pass breakups in 2025 across stints with Dallas and Green Bay. Between the lack of ball production and a series of off-field distractions, Diggs has become the ultimate 'name-brand' trap for a team desperate for secondary help.

UPDATE
- Contract Value: 5 years, $97,000,000 million ($19.4 million AAV)
- Total Guaranteed: $42,304,000 | At Signing: $33,304,000
35. Haason Reddick (EDGE)
Turning 32 years old inSeptember, Haason Reddick has recorded just 3.5 sacks in his last 23 appearances. The speed-dependent pass rusher's initial bend and burst are clearly waning, and Reddick lacks a secondary power counter. Overpaying for his past double-digit sack seasons guarantees a negative return on investment.
36. Aaron Rodgers (QB)
Aaron Rodgers’ 3,322 passing yards and 24 touchdowns for Pittsburgh last season create a mirage of sustained viability. However, a steep drop in functional mobility means he now relies entirely on a highly insulated pocket. Paying starter money to a 42-year-old quarterback whose physical limitations were exposed in the playoffs is ill-advised.
37. Jauan Jennings (WR)
Jauan Jennings has mastered the art of the 'dirty work' receiver, parrying elite run-blocking with a career-high nine touchdowns this past season. But with a reported $20M/year asking price, the value proposition is thin. Jennings is a red-zone weapon, but his limited vertical speed and route tree suggest he’s an elite role player miscasting himself as a primary engine.
38. Devin Lloyd (LB)
Devin Lloyd finally translated his elite athleticism into a breakout, Second-Team All-Pro campaign in 2025. However, in an era where premium cap space is reserved for pass rushers and corners, paying near-top-of-market dollars for an off-ball linebacker is an inherent gamble, no matter how instinctive the player.

UPDATE

Lloyd has signed a three-year, $42 million contract with the Carolina Panthers.
- Contract Value: 3 years, $42,000,000 million ($14 million AAV)
- Total Guaranteed: $25,000,000 | At Signing: $25,000,000
39. Quay Walker (LB)
Quay Walker’s elite size and speed continue to tantalize, but his on-field production has yet to consistently match the physical tools, particularly in coverage, where he has struggled mightily. Betting on a former first-round pick to finally put it all together at age 25 is tempting for desperate defenses, but paying starter money for repeated flashes rather than proven reliability is a classic developmental trap.

UPDATE

Walker has signed a three-year, $40.5 million contract with the Las Vegas Raiders.
- Contract Value: 3 years, $40,500,000 million ($13.5 million AAV)
- Total Guaranteed: $28,000,000 | At Signing: $28,000,000
40. Romeo Doubs (WR)
Averaging roughly 50 catches, 600 yards, and five touchdowns over his first four seasons, Romeo Doubs has proven to be a consistent producer. However, paying a steady-but-unspectacular wideout $14M-16M per year simply because of a thin WR class overlooks his average athleticism and lack of explosive playmaking ability.

UPDATE

Doubs has signed a four-year, $68 million contract with the New England Patriots.
- Contract Value: 4 years, $68,000,000 million ($17 million AAV)
- Total Guaranteed: $39,000,000 | At Signing: $35,000,000
41. Javonte Williams (RB)
Javonte Williams successfully rehabilitated his market value with a phenomenal 11-touchdown campaign on a 'prove-it' deal in Dallas. That said, committing premium dollars to a back with a catastrophic knee injury in his history, especially immediately following a career-high 287-touch workload, is the ultimate roll of the dice in a league that increasingly views the position as disposable.

UPDATE

Williams has re-signed with the Cowboys, agreeing to a three-year, $24 million contract.
- Contract Value: 3 years, $24,000,000 million ($8 million AAV)
- Total Guaranteed: $16,000,000 | At Signing: $0
42. Joel Bitonio (LG)
For more than a decade, Joel Bitonio has been the model of left-guard excellence in Cleveland. Yet, as he enters his age-35 campaign, the reality of physical decline looms for even the steadiest interior linemen. Tying significant cap dollars to past All-Pro honors rather than current film is exactly how salary-cap flexibility quietly evaporates.
43. Kirk Cousins (QB)
While he was once one of the league's better quarterbacks, signing Kirk Cousins to anything resembling starter money in 2026 is difficult to justify. Approaching his 38th birthday, the veteran hit the open market after Atlanta absorbed a massive dead-cap hit simply to move on. Betting on Cousins' leadership and pre-snap intelligence is tempting for a QB-needy franchise, but committing high-end cap space to a player with a mounting injury history overlooks his physical limitations.

UPDATE

Cousins has singed a five-year, $172 million contract with the Las Vegas Raiders.
- Contract Value: 5 years, $172,000,000 million ($34.4 million AAV)
- Total Guaranteed: $11,300,000 | At Signing: $11,300,000
44. Keenan Allen (WR)
While Keenan Allen caught 81 passes in 2025, the veteran wideout averaged a dismal 9.6 yards per catch and only eclipsed 50 receiving yards once in his final ten games. Now 34 years old, Allen remains a reliable chain-mover, but paying for his name recognition risks a major overinvestment in a player whose ability to create explosive plays has evaporated.
45. Von Miller (EDGE)
Despite registering nine sacks in 2025, the soon-to-be-37-year-old Von Miller posted a highly inefficient 9.5% pass-rush win rate. His legendary first-step burst has faded, and he hasn't managed over 450 snaps in half a decade. Paying Miller based on a sack aberration is likely to be a poor investment for a situational player.
46. David Njoku (TE)
David Njoku enters free agency following a disappointing and injury-shortened 2025 campaign in Cleveland, where he hauled in just 33 passes for 293 yards and four touchdowns across 12 games. While Njoku has shown elite athleticism in the past, his recent knee issues and declining per-target efficiency make any multi-year deal north of $10–12M annually a significant gamble on unproven durability and production rebound.
47. Calais Campbell (DL)
Calais Campbell defied Father Time once again last season with 6.5 sacks and solid run defense for the Cardinals at age 39. However, paying the 18-year vet anything approaching starter money in 2026 would be betting against the near-certainty of physical decline, especially with Campbell himself all but confirming 2025 might have been his swan song before pondering one more year.
48. Christian Kirk (WR)
Christian Kirk's massive Wild Card performance (8-144-1) against the Steelers has created a dangerous narrative for teams in need of receiving help. The reality is that Kirk is entering his age-30 campaign as an injury-prone slot specialist with diminishing explosive metrics. Any front office lured by his postseason heroics into a deal exceeding $10M annually risks overpaying for a one-game outlier, ignoring the broader trend of his declining regular-season production.

UPDATE

Kirk has signed a one-year, $6 million contract with the San Francisco 49ers.
- Contract Value: 1 years, $3,000,000 million ($3 million AAV)
- Total Guaranteed: $2,780,000 | At Signing: $2,780,000
49. Jadeveon Clowney (EDGE)
Despite a resurgent 8.5-sack campaign with the Cowboys, Jadeveon Clowney remains the ultimate "boom-or-bust" investment. Now 33, the edge rusher has a career defined more by periodic flashes of brilliance than sustained, year-over-year dominance. Given Clowney's long injury history and a reliance on raw athleticism that is naturally beginning to wane, committing significant guaranteed money based on a single strong season would be a short-sighted move for any front office.
50. Marshon Lattimore (CB)
Marshon Lattimore hits the open market with a resume that once screamed shutdown corner, but recent years have been plagued by injuries and declining coverage metrics. Teams tempted to pay for the name and pedigree risk anchoring their secondary to a player whose recovery speed and availability can no longer be trusted over a multi-year commitment.
51. Russell Wilson (QB)
Turning 38 years old next season, Russell Wilson's days of escaping the pocket to create magical out-of-structure splash plays are firmly behind him, and his career-long reluctance to consistently target the middle of the field naturally limits an offense's ceiling. Handing him anything resembling mid-tier starting quarterback money is a desperate, nostalgic bet that ignores the harsh reality of his physical decline.
52. Cam Robinson (OT)
Offensive tackle scarcity creates irrational markets, and Cam Robinson is the exact type of player who could benefit. Robinson's 2025 pass block win rate was a career-best 92.1%. Still, his technical lapses keep him from playing with week-to-week consistency, and Spotrac's current market value lands around $13.1 million annually. Paying solid-starter money is one thing; paying borderline-premium tackle money for a player with uneven tape and a recent history of short-term stops is where buyer's remorse begins.
53. Mekhi Becton (G)
Few free agents are more tempting than Mekhi Becton, which is exactly the danger. Released by the Chargers on March 4, Becton's size and raw power will always entice teams into believing there is still untapped upside, but that belief has consistently outpaced the actual on-field results. If a team pays Becton like an established upper-tier starter rather than a high-variance reclamation project, it is buying the dream instead of the player.
54. Jonah Williams (OT)
At 28 years old, Jonah Williams is young enough to sell as a “buy-low” tackle with room to stabilize, but the market could easily overshoot the actual player. Durability concerns have followed him, and when a lineman has trouble staying on the field, even solid stretches become difficult to trust as the foundation for a multi-year investment.
55. Jonnu Smith (TE)
Jonnu Smith is a fit-versus-price trap. In the right offense, he can still be a useful mismatch weapon who creates after the catch and adds versatility to a passing game. The problem comes when teams convince themselves that schematic utility and splash-play ability are the same thing as true every-down TE1 value. Any front office paying Smith like a foundational offensive piece would be confusing a complementary weapon for a centerpiece.
The Bottom Line
The winners of March often become the losers of September. While fans love a splashy signing, the smartest teams understand that the best move in free agency is often the one you simply don't make. Only time will tell if this year's high rollers can buck that NFL trend.
The Allure of the Big Splash
The history of the NFL is littered with massive free-agent deals that ended in disaster. As past cautionary tales like Albert Haynesworth and Kenny Golladay prove, winning the bidding war in March rarely leads to a parade in February. With the 2026 salary cap shattering the $300 million mark, front offices are more tempted than ever to overspend on a "missing piece." Yet, GMs must remain disciplined; the line between securing a franchise pillar and being saddled with a bloated contract is razor-thin.

Keeping that volatility in mind, we have identified 55 players from this cycle who are most likely to fall short of their hefty new price tags.

Note: This is an expansion of our previous coverage. Profiles for players who have already reached agreements have been revised to reflect their new deals.