NFL · 4 weeks ago

ESPN Ranks Mendoza and All 18 First-Round Quarterbacks Since 2021

John Canady

Host · Writer

18) Kenny Pickett, Pittsburgh (2022)
Drafted: No. 20, Pittsburgh Steelers

Kenny Pickett entered a thin 2022 class as the only first-round quarterback. At Pitt, he threw 42 touchdowns but struggled with arm strength. His NFL career has been turbulent, including multiple trades and inconsistent production. Pickett has completed 63% of passes in limited action but remains a veteran presence with upside if he lands in the right system.

“Pickett’s journey shows how quickly circumstances can alter a quarterback’s career path.” – Matt Miller

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1) Caleb Williams, USC (2024)
Drafted: No. 1, Chicago Bears

The appeal with Caleb Williams has always been the rare blend of creativity and arm talent. He left USC after a dominant final season that included 3,633 passing yards and 41 total touchdowns, adding to a résumé already highlighted by a Heisman Trophy.

Williams's rookie year was inconsistent, finishing with a 46.7 QBR, which ranked 28th among 33 qualified quarterbacks. Nonetheless, year two told a much different story. The USC product threw for a franchise-record 3,942 passing yards and pushed Chicago to the divisional round. The accuracy inconsistencies remain part of the evaluation, but the leap in command and production suggests the former No. 1 pick is beginning to steady the trajectory.

“Williams is getting closer to realizing the hype he had entering the NFL.” – Matt Miller

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2) Trevor Lawrence, Clemson (2021)
Drafted: No. 1, Jacksonville Jaguars

The expectations around Trevor Lawrence started years before he reached the draft stage, and his Clemson resume — a 34-2 record with 90 passing touchdowns — only amplified the belief he’d become a franchise pillar.

The NFL results have come in stages. A reset year as a rookie gave way to a 2022 breakthrough featuring 25 touchdown passes, a division crown, and a postseason win. Injuries and inconsistency interrupted that climb, but Lawrence reasserted himself in 2025 with 4,007 passing yards and 29 touchdowns, powering Jacksonville to a 13-4 finish. The talent was never in doubt — the consistency is finally catching up.

“He was deemed the next great NFL quarterback prospect before even taking a snap for Clemson.” – Matt Miller
4) Drake Maye, North Carolina (2024)
Drafted: No. 3, New England Patriots

Upside drove the conversation around Drake Maye, particularly after a 2022 season that produced 38 touchdown passes against just seven interceptions at North Carolina. Even with a statistical dip the following year, evaluators continued betting on the long-term tools.

New England’s patience paid off. After a steady rookie showing on a 4-13 roster, Maye exploded in Year 2, leading the league with a 77.1 QBR, throwing for 4,394 yards, and finishing with 31 touchdowns and eight interceptions. The leap carried the Patriots to the AFC Championship Game, where they just fell short in the Super Bowl.

“His potential was still outstanding enough for teams to consider him at the very top of the draft.” – Matt Miller
5) Bryce Young, Alabama (2023)
Drafted: No. 1, Carolina Panthers

At Alabama, Bryce Young operated at an extremely high level, displaying elite touch, timing, and creativity. After a Heisman-winning 2021 campaign, he posted 3,328 passing yards, 32 touchdowns, and five interceptions in 2022, proving he could handle the weight of expectations.

The NFL brought early struggles, including a benching in his second season, but Young regained form to finish with the 12th-best QBR (65.8) from Week 10 onward. Year three had ups and downs, but 3,011 passing yards and 23 touchdowns helped lead Carolina to its first playoff appearance in eight seasons.

“Young has a knack for bouncing back and showing why he was a Heisman winner.” – Matt Miller
6) Zach Wilson, BYU (2021)
Drafted: No. 2, New York Jets

Once considered a potential top pick over Trevor Lawrence, Zach Wilson dazzled with a live arm, deep-ball precision, and uncanny mobility at BYU. His junior season showcased his ability to escape pressure and deliver off-platform throws with ease.

Pro success has been elusive. Wilson threw 23 touchdowns to 25 interceptions over three years in New York and completed just 57% of passes. A trade to Denver and backup appearances in Miami haven’t offered redemption, and Wilson now serves as a cautionary tale of rising hype colliding with reality.

“Wilson became a cautionary tale for how quickly hype can outpace production.” – Matt Miller
7) C.J. Stroud, Ohio State (2023)
Drafted: No. 2, Houston Texans

With C.J. Stroud, production and polish were undeniable. The Ohio State starter finished with a 21-4 record and an astounding 85-to-12 touchdown-to-interception ratio, combining arm strength, poise, and toughness. Scouts were impressed by his playoff performance against Georgia and his elite combine workout.

Stroud made an immediate impact in Houston, winning Offensive Rookie of the Year and helping the team win playoff games in each of his first three seasons. A sophomore slump in 2024 included 12 interceptions and a 46.8 QBR, plus four picks in the divisional round, but the talent remains clear.

“Stroud hit every mark in college and showed he could carry it into the NFL.” – Matt Miller
8) Fernando Mendoza, Indiana (2026)
*Projected to be No. 1 Overall Pick (Las Vegas Raiders)*

The top quarterback in the 2026 class, Fernando Mendoza, has quietly become a pre-draft favorite. A precise passer with on-time decisions and mobility, he can dominate without needing to flash every play. In 2025, he threw for 3,535 yards, 41 touchdowns, and just six interceptions, leading Indiana to a Heisman and national title.

Mendoza’s style has drawn comparisons to Joe Burrow, thriving in the pocket and stepping up when defenses challenge him. As one AFC East scout put it, “He'll bore you to death and then beat you by 40 points.”

“He’ll bore you to death and then beat you by 40 points.” – Matt Miller
9) J.J. McCarthy, Michigan (2024)
Drafted: No. 10, Minnesota Vikings

After a national championship season at Michigan, J.J. McCarthy entered the NFL with high expectations but limited experience. Scouts questioned if he had enough production in a run-heavy offense. Pre-draft, he was my No. 4 quarterback in 2024, and extra collegiate time likely would have made him the top QB in 2025.

A knee injury wiped out his rookie year, and inconsistency followed in Year 2. McCarthy completed 57.6% of passes, threw 12 interceptions to 11 touchdowns, and now faces a tenuous starting role entering 2026.

“McCarthy has the tools but needs health and consistency to fulfill his promise.” – Matt Miller
10) Trey Lance, North Dakota State (2021)
Drafted: No. 3, San Francisco 49ers

Trey Lance entered the NFL with a small sample of 17 starts at North Dakota State, but the potential was undeniable. His running ability, field vision, and upside convinced San Francisco to trade up, and he immediately intrigued scouts.

Injuries and limited opportunities have stalled his career. After a season-ending ankle injury in 2022, Lance was shuffled to Dallas and later signed with the Chargers. He saw brief action in four games in 2025, including a start in the season finale, but is still searching for his first extended run as a starter.

“Lance has the tools to be dynamic, but injuries have kept him from showing it.” – Matt Miller
11) Anthony Richardson Sr., Florida (2023)
Drafted: No. 4, Indianapolis Colts

Anthony Richardson Sr. embodies the modern quarterback prototype — big, fast, and armed with a cannon. But limited college experience and concerns about accuracy tempered the hype. Over three seasons, he’s played in just 17 of 51 possible games, throwing 11 touchdowns, 13 interceptions, and adding 10 rushing scores while battling injuries and a benching. The Colts recently permitted him to seek a trade, leaving his next chapter wide open.

“Richardson would be atop this list if it were all about physical traits.” – Matt Miller
12) Justin Fields, Ohio State (2021)
Drafted: No. 11, Chicago Bears

When he entered the NFL, Justin Fields drew comparisons to Trevor Lawrence, though questions about scheme and supporting cast followed him from Ohio State. Fields posted 67 touchdown passes to nine interceptions in college, but his pro career has been inconsistent. Injuries and limited production capped his 2025 season at 57.7% completion and a 37.8 QBR, leaving his long-term future uncertain despite flashes of dual-threat explosiveness.

“Fields showed the tools to dominate, but hasn’t put it all together at the pro level.” – Matt Miller
13) Mac Jones, Alabama (2021)
Drafted: No. 15, New England Patriots

A classic pocket passer, Mac Jones excelled in Alabama’s system, leading the FBS with 77.4% completion and throwing 41 touchdowns on the way to a national championship. His early NFL career reflected that efficiency, but limited mobility and arm strength capped his ceiling. Jones has seen a resurgence with San Francisco, throwing for 2,151 yards and 13 touchdowns in eight starts, making him an intriguing trade candidate for teams needing a safe, polished passer.

“Jones has proven he can be an effective starter when given the right system.” – Matt Miller
14) Bo Nix, Oregon (2024)
Drafted: No. 12, Denver Broncos

Bo Nix made the leap from Auburn to Oregon and then to the NFL with momentum on his side. His college peak in 2023 included 45 touchdowns and three interceptions, showcasing accuracy, mobility, and growth. Denver has benefited, with Nix throwing for 3,931 yards and 25 touchdowns in 2025, guiding the Broncos to a 14-3 record and the AFC Championship before a late ankle injury.

“Nix has quickly become a cornerstone of Sean Payton’s offense.” – Matt Miller
15) Cam Ward, Miami (2025)
Drafted: No. 1, Tennessee Titans

After transferring from Incarnate Ward to Washington State and Miami, Cam Ward put together a standout 2024 season with 39 touchdown passes and 4,313 passing yards. His rookie year was rough, completing 59.8% of passes for 3,169 yards and a QBR of 33.2, but late-season improvement to 48.3 QBR signals the potential for a breakout in Year 2.

“Ward’s growth late in his rookie season suggests he’s ready to take the next step.” – Matt Miller
16) Michael Penix Jr., Washington (2024)
Drafted: No. 8, Atlanta Falcons

Michael Penix Jr. dominated the Pac-12 with 67 touchdown passes to 19 interceptions over his final two seasons at Washington, earning a national title game appearance. Injuries have been the story not only of his early pro career but of his career as a whole, with the most recent setback coming in 2025, when he tore an ACL. Still, he took over the starting job and completed 60.1% of passes for 1,939 yards last season, showing the accuracy and deep-ball skills that made him a first-round pick.

“Penix has the talent to command an offense when healthy.” – Matt Miller
17) Jaxson Dart, Ole Miss (2025)
Drafted: No. 25, New York Giants

A surprise first-round pick, Jaxson Dart took over for Russell Wilson and showed promise in 15 games, throwing 15 touchdowns to five interceptions while rushing for 487 yards and nine scores. Injuries due to hits while scrambling have limited his availability, but Dart’s dual-threat ability gives the Giants optimism for Year 2.

“It doesn’t matter where you ranked him if the team believes he’s their quarterback.” – Matt Miller
18) Kenny Pickett, Pittsburgh (2022)
Drafted: No. 20, Pittsburgh Steelers

Kenny Pickett entered a thin 2022 class as the only first-round quarterback. At Pitt, he threw 42 touchdowns but struggled with arm strength. His NFL career has been turbulent, including multiple trades and inconsistent production. Pickett has completed 63% of passes in limited action but remains a veteran presence with upside if he lands in the right system.

“Pickett’s journey shows how quickly circumstances can alter a quarterback’s career path.” – Matt Miller

Stay ahead of the game and elevate your sports betting experience with SportsGrid.
1) Caleb Williams, USC (2024)
Drafted: No. 1, Chicago Bears

The appeal with Caleb Williams has always been the rare blend of creativity and arm talent. He left USC after a dominant final season that included 3,633 passing yards and 41 total touchdowns, adding to a résumé already highlighted by a Heisman Trophy.

Williams's rookie year was inconsistent, finishing with a 46.7 QBR, which ranked 28th among 33 qualified quarterbacks. Nonetheless, year two told a much different story. The USC product threw for a franchise-record 3,942 passing yards and pushed Chicago to the divisional round. The accuracy inconsistencies remain part of the evaluation, but the leap in command and production suggests the former No. 1 pick is beginning to steady the trajectory.

“Williams is getting closer to realizing the hype he had entering the NFL.” – Matt Miller

Have all the intel you need? Free, actionable information is just one click away! Sign up for our daily newsletter, SportsGrid Daily.

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ESPN Ranks Mendoza and All 18 First-Round Quarterbacks Since 2021

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