NFL · 3 hours ago

PFF Grades the Regressions: Every NFL Team’s Worst 2026 Offseason Move

Joe Cervenka

Host · Writer

Have Your Say! Which Move Haunts a Team Most?
Which "Least Favorite Move" Will Puree the Postseason?
- The Quarterback Crash: The Colts are paying $44M APY for the 21st-ranked passer in the league. Is the Daniel Jones experiment a total disaster before it even starts?
- Market-Setter Madness: The Rams made McDuffie the highest-paid corner in history, but did they empty the vault at the expense of their entire roster depth?
- The Defensive Blunders: From the Raiders’ Quay Walker overpay to the Commanders’ secondary sieve, which unit is most likely to be a dream matchup for opposing coordinators?
- The Strategic Winners: PFF gave a rare N/A to the Steelers and Eagles. Is Howie Roseman truly the only one who knows how to keep his ticket from crashing?
- Join the Conversation: Which of these analytics-defying risks is the biggest "sell" candidate for you? Who is the one player on this list destined to be a dead-cap casualty by 2027?
PFF Grades the Disaster: Every NFL Team’s Least Favorite 2026 Offseason Move
The 2026 Market: High-Stakes Gambles and Analytical Red Flags
- The 2026 NFL Offseason has officially jumped off the page for all the wrong reasons. We’re seeing a jarring divergence between retail price and on-field yield, where front offices are paying for the name on the jersey while ignoring the analytical red flags on the tape.
- Whether it's the Indianapolis Colts committing a superstar-level sum to a mid-tier QB floor or the Las Vegas Raiders issuing a contract that defies every metric in the building, the risk profiles have been put in a blender and set to puree.
- Using Pro Football Focus (PFF) as our primary ledger, we’ve identified the one transaction for every franchise that represents a significant strategic regression.
- Mark my words: When the season starts, these are the high-stakes overpayments that will prove hurtful to the franchise. Let’s dive into a heap of front-office buyer's remorse.
Las Vegas Raiders
The Quay Walker "High-Volume" Blunder

"Walker has yet to justify a contract of that size... placed just 76th among 88 qualifying linebackers with a 46.0 PFF overall grade in 2025."

The Raiders have issued one of the least efficient contracts in the league. Paying Top-8 linebacker money for the 76th-ranked performer is a catastrophic failure in market valuation. This move strips the Raiders of cap liquidity while providing a basement-level floor for their defense.

2025 Stats: 58 solo tackles, 2.5 sacks
Los Angeles Chargers
The Cole Strange "Replacement-Level" Buy

"Strange... has earned PFF overall grades below 60.0 in three of his four NFL seasons... 19th-highest-paid left guard in the NFL this offseason."

The Chargers have issued a "blind-faith" contract to a player whose career arc shows zero growth. Paying Top-20 money for the 57th-ranked guard is a failure in fundamental analysis. This move ensures the interior of the Chargers' line remains a distressed unit for the foreseeable future.
Denver Broncos
The J.K. Dobbins "Snap-Count" Fragility

"Dobbins has logged only 905 snaps over the past three seasons, which also ranks 45th. The size of this contract is a risk, considering Dobbins’s tendency to miss time."

Denver is buying a "high-upside" asset with zero reliability. While Dobbins’s 80.8 rushing grade is elite, his inability to stay on the field makes him a high-risk liability. This contract could easily become "dead money" by Week 4, leaving the Broncos' backfield bankrupt.

2025 Stats: 772 rushing yards, 4 TDs in 10 games
Tennessee Titans
The Alontae Taylor "Touchdown" Risk

"Although he forced 19 incompletions over the past two years, he gave up 14 touchdowns and allowed a passer rating above 100 in each season."

Tennessee is betting on "potential" while ignoring catastrophic negative yield. Making Taylor the 11th highest-paid corner in the league is a massive overvaluation for a player whose consistency issues ensure the opposition always has a "path of destruction" into the end zone.

2025 Stats: 59 solo tackles, 2 INTs, 11 PD
Houston Texans
The Ed Ingram "Pass-Protection" Liability

"He remained a liability in pass protection, as his 52.4 PFF pass-blocking grade ranked only 65th at the position... raises questions about his new contract, which makes him the 11th-highest-paid right guard."

Houston is paying top-shelf money for a "half-functional" asset. While Ingram is an elite run-blocker, his chronic failure to protect the QB (65th rank) makes him a liability in an offense that needs to protect its franchise QB. Paying him like a top-11 guard is a strategic price error.
Jacksonville Jaguars
The "One-Asset" Secondary Strategy

"The only player the Jaguars have signed outside of Brown is running back Chris Rodriguez Jr."

PFF lists Jacksonville's lack of supplemental investment as their biggest blunder. By failing to add a second starting-caliber corner to pair with Montaric Brown, the Jaguars are entering 2026 with a high-variance secondary that could easily be exploited by the AFC's elite air attacks.
Indianapolis Colts
The Daniel Jones "Over-Leveraged" Bet

"Making him the 13th-highest-paid quarterback in the league, at an average of $44 million per year over the next two seasons, is an overpay... just the 21st-highest-graded quarterback (71.7)."

The Colts are paying Premium QB1 money for "Middle-Tier" performance. By committing $44M APY to a player who ended the season as the 21st-ranked passer, Indianapolis has created a toxic asset that severely limits their ability to hedge against further QB regression.

2025 Stats: 3,101 passing yards, 24 TDs, 63.0 QBR in 13 games
Pittsburgh Steelers
The Flawless Offseason Gradient

"The Steelers have had an excellent free agency period so far. They were able to sign players at premium positions to reasonable contracts... while adding other players... to much cheaper, low-risk contracts."

PFF gives Pittsburgh an "N/A" for their least favorite move, noting that every transaction—from the Michael Pittman Jr. trade to the Asante Samuel Jr. signing—was done at surplus-value pricing. The Steelers are the "market winners" of 2026, building the league's most "risk-adjusted" roster.

2025 Stats: 80 rec, 784 rec yards, 7 TDs
Cleveland Browns
The Zion Johnson "Retail-Price" Mistake

"Johnson's new deal ranks eighth among guards in average annual value, but outside of a couple of flashes, his play does not justify it... 56.5 PFF overall grade ranked just 54th at the position."

The Browns have issued one of the most inflationary contracts of the cycle. Paying Top-8 money for the 54th-ranked guard is a fundamental failure in market valuation. This move strips the Browns of cap liquidity while providing a "replacement-level" floor in the middle of their offense.
Cincinnati Bengals
The Jonathan Allen "Macro-Decline" Buy

" Allen... logged 75.0-plus PFF overall grades between 2020 and 2022 but has failed to surpass 60.0 in any of the three campaigns since."

Cincinnati is attempting to buy a "rebound candidate" whose career arc suggests he has already hit a permanent valuation ceiling. Allen’s 2025 grade was his career-worst; paying him as a top-30 interior defender is an inefficient use of capital that ignores three years of downward data.

2025 Stats: 29 solo tackles, 3.5 sacks
Baltimore Ravens
The John Simpson "No Linderbaum" Regression

"Simpson returns to Baltimore... but this time, he will not have center Tyler Linderbaum by his side. Simpson has earned a PFF overall grade above 60.0 just once in his career."

The Ravens are overpaying for a familiar name without accounting for the context of his success. Simpson’s 2024 peak was aided by an elite center; asking him to anchor a line as a standalone stabilizer is a recipe for yield regression at a top-tier salary.
New England Patriots
The Alijah Vera-Tucker "Availability" Risk

"What makes this move, and this size of a contract, very risky is that he hasn't been on the field recently... missed the entire 2025 season and has played just 1,348 snaps over the past four seasons."

The Patriots are committing elite-level capital to a "distressed asset." While Vera-Tucker’s talent is Top-10 at his position, his lack of snap-count liquidity (73rd among guards) makes this a high-risk gamble for a team that cannot afford dead-cap space in the trenches.
New York Jets
The Joseph Ossai Pass-Rush Void

"Over the past two campaigns, he earned PFF overall grades of 58.3 and 64.0... Considering his lack of pass-rushing production, Ossai may have been worthy of becoming the 33rd highest-paid edge defender."

The Jets are paying for "potential" that has yet to hit the tape. Making Ossai the 33rd highest-paid edge in the league is a "hope-based" investment for a player who has consistently ranked in the bottom third of the league in pressure rate. This move does little to fix a pass rush that needs high-yield disruptors.

2025 Stats: 21 solo tackles, 5 sacks
Miami Dolphins
The Strategic Silence of the Rebuild

"Considering the direction of the Dolphins' franchise, the front office unsurprisingly did not make any big investments, outside of Willis, this offseason."

PFF identifies Miami’s lack of investment outside of Malik Willis as their least favorite move, but acknowledges it aligns with their rebuilding cycle. However, by failing to add veteran stop-gap liquidity to their O-line, the Dolphins are ensuring their young QB assets operate in a high-variance environment.

2025 Stats: 422 passing yards, 123 rushing yards, 5 TDs in 4 games
Buffalo Bills
The Bradley Chubb "Projection" Buy

"Chubb has topped a 15% pass-rush win rate just once in his career... His 11.5% pass-rush win rate in 2025 ranked just 61st among 129 qualifying edge defenders."

Buffalo is paying a premium $43.5 million for a player who has consistently performed as a league-average pass rusher. This is a classic "buying the name" move where the team is betting on Chubb returning to a career-year form that looks more like a statistical outlier than his true fundamental baseline.

2025 Stats: 24 solo tackles, 8.5 sacks, 2 FF
New York Giants
The Tremaine Edmunds "Mid-Tier" Premium

"Edmunds... failed to replicate his breakout 2022 season throughout his time in Chicago... surprisingly that the Giants made him the 11th-highest-paid linebacker in the NFL."

The Giants are paying Top-10 money for a player whose 66.0 PFF grade suggests he is firmly in the "Tier 3" of league linebackers. This is a classic overvaluation of reputation, where the front office is paying for the idea of a star defender rather than the reality of his recent production.

2025 Stats: 61 solo tackles,1 sack, 4 INTs
Philadelphia Eagles
The Efficiency of "No Mistakes"

"Despite signing some outsiders and re-signing their own players, the Eagles don't seem to have overpaid for anyone."

In a rare move, PFF lists "N/A" for Philadelphia. The Eagles avoided the "bubble" of the first wave of free agency, maintaining their financial dominance while shoring up the secondary through the draft and savvy "buy-the-dip" veteran signings. Howie Roseman continues to lead the league in risk-adjusted asset management.
Dallas Cowboys
The "Wait-and-See" Stagnation

"The Cowboys were not overly active in free agency, especially since most of their attention went to trades and contract negotiations with wide receiver George Pickens."

Like Arizona, Dallas's least favorite move is their strategic paralysis. By focusing all their transactional liquidity on a single trade negotiation (George Pickens), they have allowed several high-value, mid-tier free agents to sign elsewhere. This all-in-on-one strategy increases the team's downside risk.

2025 Stats: 93 rec, 1,429 rec yards, 9 TDs
Washington Commanders
The Amik Robertson "Secondary Sieve"

"Robertson ranked just 107th among 112 qualifying cornerbacks in 2025 with a 48.6 PFF overall grade. He gave up six touchdowns and allowed a 107.3 passer rating."

Washington is attempting to fix a broken unit with a broken asset. Paying $15 million for a corner who allowed nearly a touchdown every other week is a fundamental failure in market evaluation. This signing ensures the back door remains wide open for opposing QBs, effectively devaluing the rest of the defensive investments.

2025 Stats: 43 solo tackles, 1 INT, 12 PD
Los Angeles Rams
The McDuffie "Market Setter" Cost

"The Rams not only traded for McDuffie but also locked him up for the next five seasons as the NFL's highest-paid cornerback."

While McDuffie is a blue-chip talent, PFF notes the extravagant cost in both draft capital and contract size. The Rams have essentially emptied the vault for a single position, a move that provides an elite ceiling but removes all rookie-contract depth. If McDuffie faces any injury-related volatility, the Rams' secondary lacks the diversified asset structure to recover.

2025 Stats: 45 solo tackles, 1 INT, 7 PD in 13 games
San Francisco 49ers
The Mike Evans "Age-Curve" Gamble

"His 13th year in the NFL... Only one wide receiver has logged more than 400 receiving yards in their 13th season over the past five seasons... Buday doesn't believe history is on Evans' side."

The 49ers are chasing brand-name production at a time when the metrics suggest a steep decline is imminent. Evans is coming off career-low snap counts; paying him a premium salary while ignoring the 13th-season cliff is a high-risk move that could leave the 49ers with an underperforming veteran asset by November.

2025 Stats: 30 rec, 368 rec yards, 3 TDs in 8 games
Seattle Seahawks
The Rashid Shaheed Special Teams Premium

"The Seahawks made Shaheed the 27th-highest-paid wide receiver... if Shaheed’s role does not increase, then this is an overpay for a situational player... he tallied fewer than 30 receiving yards in five of his last six games."

Seattle is paying WR2 money for a WR4/Returner profile, an inefficient use of capital. Shaheed is an elite special teams asset, but his lack of target liquidity (fewer than five targets in 11 of 12 games) makes this contract a poor "price-per-snap" investment for a team that needs more receiving floor.

2025 Stats: 59 rec, 687 rec yards, 4 TDs
Arizona Cardinals
The "Inactive Market" Regression

"The Cardinals were not big players during the first wave of free agency, and even the contracts they did dole out could be considered smaller with minimal risk."

PFF’s "Least Favorite Move" for Arizona is their lack of activity. By failing to weaponize their cap space to shore up a roster with multiple distressed units, the Cardinals have opted for a passive accumulation strategy. While it minimizes financial risk, it also ensures their win-probability floor remains among the lowest in the NFL for the 2026 season.
Chicago Bears
The Neville Gallimore Interior Reach

"The Bears signed Gallimore to a contract that suggests he'd start. However, Gallimore has yet to earn a PFF overall grade above 60.0 in any season, and his 56.6 PFF overall grade in 2025 ranked just 75th."

Chicago is trying to manufacture depth by overpaying for a veteran who has never cleared the replacement-level threshold of a 60.0 grade. This move allocates precious cap space to a player with a low ceiling, preventing the Bears from pursuing higher-quality interior disruptors who could actually move the needle on their defensive win probability.

2025 Stats: 18 solo tackles, 3.5 sacks
Minnesota Vikings
The Eric Wilson Coverage Liability

"The Vikings re-signed Wilson to a three-year contract worth $22.5 million... it might still be an overpay, considering Wilson’s limited skill set. In 2025, he earned a 36.7 PFF coverage grade."

Minnesota is holding onto a "familiar asset" that has become an analytical liability. Wilson’s 71st-ranked coverage grade makes him a target for opposing coordinators in the pass-heavy NFC North. Paying nearly $8M per year for a linebacker who cannot defend the pass is a strategic blunder that devalues the rest of the Vikings' defensive investments.

2025 Stats: 60 solo tackles, 6.5 sacks, 4 FF
Green Bay Packers
The Sean Rhyan Extension Mistake

"The Packers extended Rhyan to a contract worth $33 million over three years... even though he has played only 470 snaps at center... he was a liability in pass protection in 2025, highlighted by his 42.4 PFF pass-blocking grade."

Green Bay is issuing a "blind-faith" contract here, rewarding a player whose only qualifying pass-blocking metric ranked dead last (37th of 37) in the league. This is a classic "bad buy" where the team is paying top-7 money for basement-level production, creating a massive vulnerability in the middle of their offensive pocket.
Detroit Lions
The Cade Mays "Starter-Level" Projection

"Detroit is paying Mays as if he is a high-end starter, as his contract carries the ninth-highest average annual value. He has yet to prove he is capable of consistently above-average performances."

The Lions are "over-leveraging" on a player with a mediocre 61.0 PFF grade, banking on a breakout that hasn't materialized. Mays was a liability in the run game during his tenure in Carolina, and paying him as a top-10 center represents a massive market reach for a team that prides itself on physical, trench-based identity.

2025 Stats: 43 solo tackles, 1 INT, 12 PD
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The A'Shawn Robinson "Past Prime" Overpay

"Robinson has been past his prime for a couple of seasons... Although his 2025 was better than his previous two seasons, Robinson still ranked just 45th among interior defenders with a 63.7 PFF overall grade."

Tampa Bay is paying for name-brand reliability that the analytics no longer support. Robinson is currently a situational role player being paid like a foundational starter. This pricing error limits the Buccaneers' ability to find younger, high-upside disruptors for a defensive front that needs to get younger and more explosive.

2025 Stats: 21 solo tackles, 2.5 sacks
New Orleans Saints
The David Edwards "Context-Free" Gamble

" Edwards... making him the ninth-highest-paid left guard in the NFL is a big risk when he will need to perform without the help of one of the best offensive lines in football."

The Saints are committing top-10 guard money to a player whose previous success was largely a byproduct of an elite Buffalo unit. Transitioning Edwards to a Saints line that has struggled with interior stability suggests a high probability of yield regression. Without the "moat" of an elite offensive line around him, Edwards’s $10 million APY represents a significant overvaluation.
Atlanta Falcons
The Jahan Dotson Overvaluation

"Dotson signed a two-year contract for $15 million... although that still might be more than what his recent play would justify. He failed to earn PFF overall grades above 60.0 in each of his past three seasons."

Atlanta is attempting a buy-low on a former first-rounder, but PFF suggests they’ve actually bought at the top of a declining market. With a 54.1 PFF grade that ranked 117th out of 128 receivers, Dotson lacks the fundamental production to justify a $7.5M APY deal. For a team that needs efficient yield from their pass-catchers, this is an overpayment for a player who hasn't been a plus asset since his rookie year.

2025 Stats: 18 rec, 262 rec yards, 1 TD
Carolina Panthers
The Jaelan Phillips "Injury Premium"

"Phillips' contract carries the eighth-highest average annual value among edge defenders. Durability has been a concern throughout his career... even when Phillips is on the field, he has not always produced at an elite level."

Carolina is aggressively buying a star profile that the metrics simply don't support at this price point. By making Phillips a top-8 earner at his position despite a history of major lower-leg injuries, the Panthers have taken on a high-risk asset with limited liquidity. If Phillips cannot maintain a massive increase in snap count, this $120 million valuation will quickly become a sunk cost for a rebuilding franchise.

2025 Stats: 29 solo tackles, 5 sacks, 1 FF
Have Your Say! Which Move Haunts a Team Most?
Which "Least Favorite Move" Will Puree the Postseason?
- The Quarterback Crash: The Colts are paying $44M APY for the 21st-ranked passer in the league. Is the Daniel Jones experiment a total disaster before it even starts?
- Market-Setter Madness: The Rams made McDuffie the highest-paid corner in history, but did they empty the vault at the expense of their entire roster depth?
- The Defensive Blunders: From the Raiders’ Quay Walker overpay to the Commanders’ secondary sieve, which unit is most likely to be a dream matchup for opposing coordinators?
- The Strategic Winners: PFF gave a rare N/A to the Steelers and Eagles. Is Howie Roseman truly the only one who knows how to keep his ticket from crashing?
- Join the Conversation: Which of these analytics-defying risks is the biggest "sell" candidate for you? Who is the one player on this list destined to be a dead-cap casualty by 2027?
PFF Grades the Disaster: Every NFL Team’s Least Favorite 2026 Offseason Move
The 2026 Market: High-Stakes Gambles and Analytical Red Flags
- The 2026 NFL Offseason has officially jumped off the page for all the wrong reasons. We’re seeing a jarring divergence between retail price and on-field yield, where front offices are paying for the name on the jersey while ignoring the analytical red flags on the tape.
- Whether it's the Indianapolis Colts committing a superstar-level sum to a mid-tier QB floor or the Las Vegas Raiders issuing a contract that defies every metric in the building, the risk profiles have been put in a blender and set to puree.
- Using Pro Football Focus (PFF) as our primary ledger, we’ve identified the one transaction for every franchise that represents a significant strategic regression.
- Mark my words: When the season starts, these are the high-stakes overpayments that will prove hurtful to the franchise. Let’s dive into a heap of front-office buyer's remorse.