Bayern Munich’s 2026 Champions League Win Probability

Live prediction market forecasts for Bayern Munich based on real-time Kalshi and Polymarket data. Updated hourly.

📊 Bayern Munich Market Brief

Updated:

Tournament: Bayern Munich were held to a 1-1 draw by Paris Saint-Germain in the second leg of their Champions League semi-final on May 6, 2026 (5-6 aggregate), eliminating them from the competition.

Recent Form: On May 16, 2026 they secured a 5-1 home league win over 1. FC Köln, then followed up with a 3-0 home cup final victory against VfB Stuttgart, finishing 1st in the Bundesliga with 89 points and carrying bullish momentum.

Squad & Catalysts: Cassiano Kiala (ligament injury – out for this season), David Santos (thigh injury – return end of May 2026), Serge Gnabry (thigh injury – out for this season) and Wisdom Mike (tendon injury – out for this season) remain sidelined.

Market Sentiment: The club’s stock experienced bearish pressure following the semi-final exit. Asset quality holds a narrow edge in squad depth ahead of off-season valuations.

Outlook: No further advancement is possible, reflecting bearish momentum on European prospects.

Key Stats

31.6%

Current Probability

30-Day Change

#T-1

Current Rank

Bayern Munich Upcoming Matches

There are no scheduled games with probabilities right now. Please check back later.

What's Driving Bayern Munich's Odds

Gnabry Thigh Tear: Serge Gnabry’s thigh injury sidelines the winger for the season, stripping the attack of a proven offensive asset.
Late-Season Rampage: Consecutive 5-1 and 3-0 wins in the past fortnight underline bullish momentum despite season-end congestion.
Transition Turbine: A shift to a high-press 4-2-3-1 unlocked a four-goal second-leg romp over Real Madrid, showcasing an edge in transition play.