Liverpool’s 2026 Champions League Win Probability

Live prediction market forecasts for Liverpool based on real-time Kalshi and Polymarket data. Updated hourly.

📊 Liverpool Market Brief

Updated: 3:10 PM (4h ago)

Quarter-final first leg sends Liverpool to Paris on 8 April after flipping a 0-1 deficit into a 4-1 aggregate win over Galatasaray with a 4-0 Anfield blitz.

Domestic form is bearish: the Reds sit fifth on 49 points, win-one-draw-one-lose-three across their last five league outings and exited the FA Cup via a 0-4 drubbing by Man City.

Mohamed Salah is cleared to return, but Joe Gomez and Jeremie Frimpong remain out; Salah’s long-term future and Luis Díaz’s summer departure chatter colour sentiment.

Order flow is mixed, leaving traders marginally net-short until league momentum improves.

Quarter-final progression is viewed as a toss-up: Salah’s boost counters patchy form, yet PSG’s home leg and Liverpool’s travel-heavy April underpin downside hedging.

Key Stats

6.5%

Current Probability

30-Day Change

Current Rank

Liverpool Upcoming Matches

Quarter-Final - Match 1

Apr 8, 3:00 PM

Liverpool vs PSG

PSG

Parc des Princes, Paris

Apr 14, 3:00 PM

Liverpool vs PSG

PSG

Anfield, Liverpool

What's Driving Liverpool's Odds

Fundamental Availability: Salah’s return injects scoring liquidity, but defensive absences persist.
Performance Momentum: Continental comeback contrasts with domestic slide, producing a volatile price range.
Strategic & Off-Field Factors: Slot likely adopts transitional football to chase away goals, while speculation over summer exits clouds longer-term valuation.