Real Madrid’s 2026 Champions League Win Probability

Tournament: In the Champions League quarter-final second leg on April 15, Real Madrid fell 4-3 at Bayern München with Arda Güler bagging a brace and Kylian Mbappé plus Eduardo Camavinga also on target in vain, sending Los Blancos out 6-4 on aggregate and ending their European campaign.

Recent Form: April 10 saw a 1-1 home draw with Girona before securing a 2-1 victory over Deportivo Alavés yesterday, leaving the side second in the league on 70 points and riding bullish momentum after a draw and win.

Squad & Catalysts: Rodrygo remains sidelined with a cruciate ligament injury expected to keep him out until mid December 2026, and Kylian Mbappé is unavailable with a knee injury of undetermined duration. Meanwhile, the manager’s position is reportedly under review amid summer overhaul speculation.

Market Sentiment: The club’s valuation has experienced bearish pressure following the quarter-final exit, prompting shareholders to adjust expectations ahead of the transfer window. Trading in next-season contracts has cooled as market participants reassess asset risk amid looming structural changes.

Outlook: With elimination confirmed at the quarter-final stage, bullish momentum for a deep Champions League run has evaporated and prospects in Europe are firmly bearish.